Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
