Everyday Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average number of per-day killings per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative statistics. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide numbers may not signal improved national stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had in these past months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.