🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.